Research
Low interest rates and government debt
Jan 11 2021. A debate with Olivier Blanchard, courtesy of IGIER at Bocconi. r<g is fun, but it is irrelevant to US fiscal issues. r<g of 1% of GDP does not finance perpetual 5% of GDP deficits, every decade 20% of GDP crisis borrowing, plus big new spending plans. And then unfunded entitlements kick in. The paper in pdf form, on my blog. Slides. Video of the event.
Jan 11 2021. A debate with Olivier Blanchard, courtesy of IGIER at Bocconi. r<g is fun, but it is irrelevant to US fiscal issues. r<g of 1% of GDP does not finance perpetual 5% of GDP deficits, every decade 20% of GDP crisis borrowing, plus big new spending plans. And then unfunded entitlements kick in. Also simple economics of why interest rates are low, and a warning of how it could all fall apart. The paper in pdf form, on my blog. Slides. Video of the event.
Challenges for central banks
This is a talk I gave at the European Central Bank (zoom) Oct 20 2020. I survey the broad challenges facing the ECB and other central banks in a policy review, from interest rates and inflation, to financial regulation, to a list of risks to worry about, and closing thoughts on the wisdom of central banks embarking on climate change policy. pdf here. conference website with other papers and video.
This is a talk I gave at the European Central Bank (zoom) Oct 20 2020. I survey the broad challenges facing the ECB and other central banks in a policy review, from interest rates and inflation, to financial regulation, to a list of risks to worry about, and closing thoughts on the wisdom of central banks embarking on climate change policy. pdf here. conference website with other papers and video.
Strategic Review and Beyond: Rethinking Monetary Policy and Independence
This was the 2020 Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Video of the lecture and more here. The article, (html) (pdf) (local pdf) in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2020, 102(2), pp. 99-119. Many thanks to the St. Louis Fed, and gracious host Jim Bullard.
This was the 2020 Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Video of the lecture and more here. The article, (html) (pdf) (local pdf) in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2020, 102(2), pp. 99-119. Many thanks to the St. Louis Fed, and gracious host Jim Bullard.
Rethinking Production Under Uncertainty
Published (advance access) Review of Asset Pricing Studies July 2020. I investigate a representation of technology in which producers can transform output across states of nature. This representation lets us write down a complete production-based asset pricing model, in which the discount factor equals marginal rates of transformation.
Published (advance access) Review of Asset Pricing Studies July 2020. I investigate a representation of technology in which producers can transform output across states of nature. This representation lets us write down a complete production-based asset pricing model, in which the discount factor equals marginal rates of transformation.