Research
Monetary-Fiscal Interactions
This is an essay summarizing some of my on the run inflation talk, and updating “fiscal narratives.” Inflation came from a big fiscal shock, and eased when that shock ended. Higher interest rates require fiscal policy to pay interest costs if they are to lower inflation. That crucial fiscal-monetary coordination may be difficult, and the next crisis may repeat the last one faster. The paper is based on comments at the 2024 SOMC conference. Read the paper
This is an essay summarizing some of my on the run inflation talk, and updating “fiscal narratives.” Inflation came from a big fiscal shock, and eased when that shock ended. Higher interest rates require fiscal policy to pay interest costs if they are to lower inflation. That crucial fiscal-monetary coordination may be difficult, and the next crisis may repeat the last one faster. The paper is based on comments at the 2024 SOMC conference. Read the paper
Bob Hall and Consumption
An essay on the impact of two Bob Hall papers on consumption. These are comments I gave at the conference celebrating Bob Hall November 22 2024. It turned into a bit of an overview of macroeconomic history. I didn’t really realize how unsteady is the basic intertemporal substitution relationship on which all macro is built. The paper>
An essay on the impact of two Bob Hall papers on consumption. These are comments I gave at the conference celebrating Bob Hall November 22 2024. It turned into a bit of an overview of macroeconomic history. I didn’t really realize how unsteady is the basic intertemporal substitution relationship on which all macro is built. The paper>
Bonds: Hedges or Risky Opportunities?
Both. Long-term bonds are a great hedge against financial crises, for investors who can’t afford to wait. do great. Bonds do terribly if the government inflates away debt, and well in a disinflation. Alphas and stock market betas are a terrible way to think about bonds and their place in a portfolio. An essay for the Fiduciary Investors Symposium at Stanford, September 19 2024. Read the essay.
Both. Long-term bonds are a great hedge against financial crises, for investors who can’t afford to wait. do great. Bonds do terribly if the government inflates away debt, and well in a disinflation. Alphas and stock market betas are a terrible way to think about bonds and their place in a portfolio. An essay for the Fiduciary Investors Symposium at Stanford, September 19 2024. Read the essay.