In Defense of the Hedgehogs
Cato Unbound. Local Pdf. A short essay on forecasting in economics and finance. Why "we can't forecast" doesn't mean "we don't know anything." The difference between unconditional forecasting -- "what will happen?" which we are not very good at, and conditional forecasting or "what will be the effect of x policy" which we are pretty good at. Most of all a defense of "hedgehogs" like Milton Friedman and Ronald Reagan, whose conditional forecasts stuck to a few clear core principle, as opposed to heterodox "foxes." It's a "reaction essay" to Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock's essay in the July 2011 Cato Unbound.